Probabilistic thinking or intuition in the Monty Hall dilemma
Pensamiento probabilístico o intuición en el dilema de Monty HallMain Article Content
This research explores the adaptation of the Monty Hall problem for implementation with high school students, within the framework of incorporating decision-making as a knowledge object in the Chilean curriculum. From a qualitative exploratory-descriptive approach, an instrumental case study is conducted with two students, using task-type interviews and deductive content analysis. To interpret the data, a cognitive dimension is assumed, considering the purposes of probability as analytical categories, and an intuitive-affective dimension, considering biases and heuristics of decision-making under uncertainty. Results reveal greater presence of the purposes of making decisions transparent under uncertainties and expressing qualitative knowledge through probabilities, along with persistence of the heuristic use of personal experience and equiprobability bias. The need to explore conditional probability from the frequentist approach is identified to improve teaching-learning processes.
La presente investigación explora la adaptación del problema Monty Hall para su implementación con jóvenes de enseñanza media, en el marco de la incorporación de la toma de decisiones como objeto de saber en el currículum chileno. Desde un enfoque cualitativo exploratorio-descriptivo, se realiza un estudio de caso instrumental con dos estudiantes, utilizando entrevistas tipo tarea y análisis de contenido deductivo. Para interpretar los datos se asume una dimensión cognitiva, considerando los propósitos de la probabilidad como categorías analíticas, y una dimensión intuitivo-afectiva, considerando sesgos y heurísticas de la toma de decisiones bajo incertidumbre. Los resultados revelan mayor presencia de los propósitos hacer transparentes las decisiones bajo incertidumbres y expresar conocimiento cualitativo mediante probabilidades, junto con persistencia de la heurística uso de experiencia personal y el sesgo de equiprobabilidad. Se identifica la necesidad de explorar la probabilidad condicional desde el enfoque frecuentista para mejorar los procesos de enseñanza-aprendizaje.
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